对水资源的计算机模型规划与管理外文翻译（可编辑）

'对水资源的计算机模型规划与管理外文翻译外文翻译COMPUTERMODELSFORWATERRESOURCESMaterialSource:TexasA&MUniversityAuthor:RalphA.WurbsThegoaloftheNationalStudyofWaterManagementduringDroughtwastoreduce?droughtimpactsinthiscountrybycollectingandimprovingwhathadbeenlearnedabout?managingwaterresourcesfordroughtandmakingthisinformationaccessibletowatermanagers.?TheauthorisamemberofthecivilengineeringfacultyofTexasA&MUniversityandworked?fortheUSACEInstituteforWaterResourcesunderanIntergovernmentalPersonnelAct?Agreementwhilepreparingthisreport.Inthesummerof1992,Dr.EugeneZ.Stakhiv,chiefof?thedivisionmanagingtheDroughtStudy,andMr.WilliamJ.Werick,thestudymanager,asked?theauthortodevelopacompendiumofwaterresourcesplanningandmanagementsoftware.?Theyallagreedthatareportlikethiswouldbeofgreatinterestandusetowatermanagersand?planners.Thereportisdesignedtohelpwatermanagersandplannerswhoarenotexpertin?modeling,andmodelingexpertsinoneareawhoareinterestedinsurveyingavailablemodelsin?anotherarea.Thepaceofsoftwareadvanceswillquicklyerodetheapplicabilityofsomeofthe?materialpresentedhere,butmuchwill remainuseful,andcanserveasanorganizedbaselinefor?futurereviews.Demandmanagementorwaterconservationprogramsrepresentakeydeterminantof?wateruse.Demandmanagementhasalsoprovidedamajorimpetusforimprovingandrefining?wateruseforecastingmethodsinrecentyears.Priortothelate1970s,watersupplyplanning?andmanagementwasbasedessentiallyonincreasingdependablesuppliesasnecessarytomeet?projecteddemands.Amajorwaterpolicythrustofthelate1970sand1980swastoshifttoa?greaterrelianceonreducingdemandsbyimprovinguseefficiencyinsteadofrelyingsolelyon?augmentingsupplies.Inrecentyears,methodsforforecastingwateruseandforevaluating?waterconservationplansarecloselyinterrelated.Wateruseforecastingmethodsnowtypically?includecapabilitiesforreflectingalternativedemandmanagementstrategiesinforecastsWateruseforecastingcanbecharacterizedby1thelevelofcomplexityofthe?mathematicalrelationshipsbetweenwateruseandexplanatoryvariablesordeterminantsofwater?use,and2thelevelofsectoral,spatial,seasonal,andotherdesegregationofwaterusers.The?complexityoftherelationshipsdependsprimarilyonhowmanyandwhichexplanatoryvariables?areincludedintheequations.Disaggregationreferstomakingseparateestimatesforcategories?andsubcategoriesofwateruse.Forexample,sectoraldesegregationinvolvesseparatewater?usepredictionsforresidential,commercial,industrial,institutional,and publicuseswhich,in?turn,caneachbedividedintonumeroussubcategories.Theseparatewateruseforecastsare?aggregatedoraddedtogethertoobtainthetotalwateruse.Wateruseforecastingmethodsaresometimesdifferentiatedasbeingeitherrequirements?modelsordemandmodels.Requirementsmodelsdonotincludethepriceofwater,orother?economicfactorsasexplanatoryvariables,thusimplyingthatwateruseisanabsolute?requirementunaffectedbyeconomicchoice.Demandmodelsincludethepriceofwatertothe?userasanexplanatoryvariable,aswellasrelatedeconomicvariablessuchasincome.Thewateruseforecastingmethodsnotedabovearebasedonprojectionsoffuturevalues?forthedeterminantsofwateruse.Dataisalsorequiredtodevelopthecoefficientsinthe?regressionequations.Thus;dataavailabilityisakeyconsiderationinwateruseforecasting.?Dataareavailablefromavarietyofsources.Forexample,historicaldataandfutureprojections?relatedtopopulation,personalincome,housing,andemploymentcanbeobtainedfrom:?publishedcensusdataandOBERSregionalprojections;localandstateplanningagencies;?econometricfirms;andstateandnationalstatisticalabstracts.Climatedataisavailablefrom?NationalWeatherServicepublicationsaswellasfromvariousfederal,state,andlocalagencies.?Waterusedataforthestudyareaandinformationregarding localwaterandwastewaterpricing?andwaterconservationprogramsareobtainedfromwaterutilitiesandlocalagencies.WateruseisestimatedasafunctionofoneormoreexplanatoryvariableswhichmayInclude:1.Numberofusers,2.Numberofemployeesinnonresidentialcategories,3.Priceofwaterandsewerservice,4.Marketvalueofhousingunitsinresidentialcategories,5.Numberofpersonsperhousingunitinresidentialcategories,6.Climateandweatherconditions,and7.Conservationprograms.Theimpactsofoneormoreproposedorpreviouslyimplementedconservationmeasures?inthewaterserviceareaarecomputedbasedon1estimatesoftheexpectedreductioninthe?usesofwateraffectedbyconservation,2themarketcoverageofconservationpractices,and?3expectedinteractionsamongmeasuresthatareimplementedtogether.Futurevaluesofwaterusedeterminantscanbedevelopedexternallyorcanbegenerated?bygrowthequationsbuiltintotheprogram.However,notallfutureparameterscanbe?generatedbytheinternalgrowthmodels.Totalpopulation,totalemployment,andmedian?householdincomeineachforecastyearmustbeprovidedbytheuser. Thegrowthmodelsfor?theresidentialsectorcanproducedefaultprojectionsoftotalnumberofhousingunitsandtheir?distributionbymarketvaluefrom1baseyearhousingdata;2theprojectedmedianhousehold?income;and3populationgrowthrate.Similarly,thedistributionofemploymentamongeight?majorSICdivisionsisprojectedforeachforecastyear,usingbaseyearvalues,andpast?employmenttrendsineachcategory.TheWaterEvaluationandPlanningWEAPmodelisawaterdemandandsupply?modelingsystemwhichservesseveralpurposesincludingdatabasemanagement,forecasting,?andanalysis.WEAPprovidesadatabasesystemformaintainingwaterdemandandsupply?information.Itprovidescapabilitiesforforecastingwaterdemandandsupplyoveralong-term68?planninghorizon.Itisasimulationmodelforevaluatingalternativewaterusescenariosand?managementstrategies.WEAPcanbeusedtoperformvarioustypesofanalysesincluding?sectoralwaterdemandforecasts,supplysourceallocations,streamflowandreservoirstorage?simulations,hydropowerforecasts,pollutionloadingestimates,andbenefit-costanalyses.?WEAPcanbeappliedtosingleormultipleinterconnectedriversystemsatthecity,regional,?ornationallevelThepurposeoftheDemandProgramistoforecastwaterdemandsforvariouswateruses?definedinthestudy.Projectedwaterdemandsdeterminedinthisprogramarepassedtothe?Distribution,Supply,and EvaluationProgramsforfurtherprocessingandanalysis.Themodel?userinputsinformationregardingpresentandfuturesocio-economicdevelopmentmeasures?suchaspopulation,industrialoutput,agriculturaloutput,andurbanandruraldomestic?developmentandunitwateruserequirementspercapita,perproductionoutput,orperactivity?ingeneral.Theprogramcomputesthewaterdemandsovertimebymultiplyingeveryactivity?measurewithitsunitwaterrequirement.Boththeactivitiesandunitwaterrequirementsmay?varywithtime.Threeoptionalmethodsareprovidedforprojectingactivitylevelsandwateruse?rates:interpolation,driversandelasticities,andgrowthrate.Driversaretheexplanatoryvariables?chosenforthewateruseprojections,suchaspopulation,consumption,industrialoutput,or?investment.Elasticitiesareusedinconjunctionwithdriverstomodelactivitylevelsorwater?useratesthatdonotchangeproportionallytothedrivers.Elasticitiesaredefinedby?econometricrelationships.TheDistributionProgramconvertstheannualdemandsdevelopedintheDemand?Programintomonthlysupplyrequirementsbyincorporatingmonthlyvariationcoefficients,?distributionlosses,conveyancecapacities,andreuseratesforeachdemandsite.Lossescould?reflectpipelineleaks,canalseepageandevaporation,clandestineconnections,orunlettered?water.Demandsitelossesarespecifiedasapercentageofdemand.Returnflowsarespecified?asapercentageofwithdrawalsandmay bereturnedtoeitherriversorgroundwaterTheSupplyProgramsimulatesthespatialandtemporalwaterallocationsbetweensupply?sourcesanddemandsites.Twobroadtypesofsupplysourcesarereflectedinthemodel:local?sourcesandriversources.Localsourcesrepresentallsourceswhereastreamflowaccountis?notneeded,suchasagroundwatersource,interbraintransfer,ordiversionfromareservoirnot?dependentonriverflow.Thecapacitiesofgroundwaterandotherlocalsourcesarerepresented?byinputtedfirmyields.Whentheriversimulationmodeisactive,streamflowsaretracked?alongamainriveranditstributaries.Twooptionalmethodsareprovidedforspecifyingstream?flows:historicaldatamethodandsimplifiedmethod.Historicalstreamflowsforeachmonth?ofthesimulationperiodcanbeinputtedforallpertinentlocations.Alternatively,thesimplified?methodallowsuseofdataforfivetypesofyears:verywet,wet,normal,dry,andverydry.?Reservoirstorageisdividedintofourzones:inactive,buffer,conservation,andfloodcontrolTheEvaluationProgramprovidescapabilitiesforcomparingandevaluatingalternativewaterusescenariosandmanagementstrategiesintermsofphysicaldemandandsupply,environmentalimpacts,andeconomiccostsandbenefits.Theprogramorganizesanddisplaysinputtedandcomputeddatacomparingalternativeplans. 译文对水资源的计算机模型规划与管理资料来源:德克萨斯州A&M大学作者:拉尔夫答全国性的研究干旱时期水资源管理的目标是通过收集改进已经了解的的关于干旱时期水资源的资料和让这些信息能及时被水资源管理者利用,从而减少干旱对国家的影响。笔者是德州工农大学土木工程学院的一员同时也为USACE工作。在1992年夏天EugeneZ.Stakhiv博士和WilliamJ.Werick先生要我开发水文管理概要的软件。他们都觉得像这样的报告一定能激起管理者和计划者的兴趣。报告是为了帮助那些不善于建模的管理者和计划者以及那些乐衷于在其他领域调查可用的模型的建模专家。软件研发的进度会影响这里一些材料的适用性,但大部分仍会有用而且可以作为今后复审的最基本的依据。需求管理或节水计划在水资源使用中起决定性因素。近些年来,需求管理在改善预测水资源使用的方法这方面起着推动性作用。在上世纪七十年代晚期以前,水供应计划和管理是以为了到达计划的需求而增加可靠的的供应者为基础的。在上世纪七十年代晚期和八十年代水资源政策进步飞速,政策侧重于通过改善使用的效率而不是单纯依赖增加供应来减少需求。近些年,预测用水和评估节水计划紧密联系。用水预测的方法现在包括考虑可替代的需求管理方法的能力。 用水量预测,其特征是(1)水的复杂程度的使用和解释之间变量或水数学关系的使用决定因素(2)各部门,空间,季节和其他用水户细分的程度。该关系的复杂性主要取决于有多少,哪些是解释变量的方程。解体是指促使类别分开的估计水的使用和子类别。例如,涉及的单独部门的水分解住宅,商业,工业,机构和公共用途使用预测,其中可以各自分为许多小类。单独的用水预测聚集或相加得到总用水。用水预测方法在作为需求模型和要求模型时会有不同。在需求模型下不要考虑用水价格或其他作为变量的经济因素,因此意味水资源的使用是必须的要求而且不被经济的选择影响。要求模型则包括用水价格作为变量,也和比如收入的相关经济变量和关系。以上预测方法基于规划用水的未来价值。数据用来发展回归方程中的系数。因此数据的可利用性在预测用水主要考虑因素。数据来源于不同资源。例如:与人口,个人收入,住房,就业有关的历史数据和未来预测可以通过已公布的检测数据,OBERS地方预测采集,当地和州的计划机构,计量经济公司和州或国家的统计概要采集。气候数据可以通过国家气象服务出版物和各种联邦,州和当地机构获得。用于研究的用水数据,当地用水和废水价格和节水计划的信息可以通过水资源公用事业单位和当地机构获得。用水估计在功能上的一个或多个解释变量,包括:用户的数量员工数量在非居民中的类别水价和污水服务以房屋为单位的市场价值在非居民中的类别每个房屋单位数量在非居民中的类别气候和天气条件保护方案 一个或多个先前实施的建议或保护措施的影响在水务领域的计算依据是:(1)预期中的估计减少,受保护的用水受到影响(2)市场覆盖率的保护措施(3)正在实施的合作措施预期的相互作用。决定未来的用水可开发价值,可以由外部或纳入计划兴建生长方程产生的。然而,并非所有未来的参数可由内部增长模式。每年预测的总人口,总就业人数,平均家庭收入必须由用户提供。为住房部门的增长预测模型可以产生默认的房屋单位总数和产值分布。(1)基准年的房屋数据(2)预计平均家庭收入(3)人口增长率。同样,就业部门在八个主要的SIC分布预测,预计每年,使用基准年的价值观,以及过去在每个类别的就业趋势。水评估和规划(WEAP)模型是一个水资源供需建模系统,提供包括数据库管理,预测多种用途和分析。WEAP提供一个数据库系统给维持水的供应和需求信息。它提供了长期预测68水的需求和供应能力的规划。这是一个用于评价替代用水方案和仿真模型的管理策略。WEAP可用于执行包括部门用水需求预测,货源分配,水库蓄水及河川流量模拟,水电预测,污染负荷估算,成本收益分析,分析不同类型。WEAP可用于单个或多个相互联系的水系在城市,地区或国家。该方案的目的是需求预测用水需求使用各种水中定义的研究。预计这项计划确定的需求传递给分配,供应和评价方案作进一步处理和分析。该模型是用户输入信息,当前和未来社会经济发展的措施(如人口,工业产值,城市和农村生活发展)和单位用水需求(人均,占产量,即一般活动)。该方案计算单位乘以其每一项活动措施需水量随时间变化的用水需求。这两个单位的活动和对水的需求可能会随时间而改变。提供三种可选的方法推算活动水平和用水率:差值,驱动程序和弹性,经济增长速度。驱动程序解释变量选择了水分利用的预测,如人口,消费,工业产出,或者投资。弹性是驱动程序不改变的比例用于连接驱动程序模型和用水率。弹性的定义是计量经济关系。 分配方案的需求转换成开发的年需求量到每月供应需求计划,纳入每月的变异系数,配电损失,运输能力和重用率每个需求的网站。损失可能反映管道泄漏,运河渗漏和蒸发,秘密连接或无计量单位的水。需求的位置被指定为亏损的需求比例。回流指定由于提款的百分比,可以退还要么河流或地下水。模拟的供应计划供应来源和需求之间的空间和时间地点水资源分配。两种类型的供应来源广泛,反映在模型:本地源和需求源。地方消息称来源代表有,地下水源,跨流域转移,或从水库不依赖引水河流径流量。其他地方的地下水源的能力是代表输入公司的产量。当河流仿真模式被激活,流向进行跟踪沿着一条主要河流及其支流。两个可选的方法提供指定的流动:历史数据的方法和简化的方法。每月的历史流动仿真期可输入所有相关位置。此外,简化的方法允许使用的数据为五种类型:很湿,湿,正常,干燥及非常干燥。水库蓄水分为四个区域:无效,缓冲,保护和防洪。评价方案提供比较和评价的实际需求和供应,环境影响,经济成本和效益方面的替代水的使用情况和管理战略的能力。该方案的组织和显示输入的数据进行比较和计算的替代计划。 '